Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.06 – 168.93

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 90 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.7 ±10.4

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 16.85Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 11.39Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 22.82Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.8 ±9.3

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -4.27Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 85.24Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 87.96Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9569, 9589, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9569, 9589, 5689

Auto

4.9 11%

Teleop

36.8 83%

Endgame

2.9 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8729, 188, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8729, 188, 10015

Auto

40.7 25%

Teleop

77.9 49%

Endgame

41.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.1pts

Blue projected score168.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.9
Score range: 21–199
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 165.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.7Season APEX490.8

4.9Auto40.7

36.8Teleop77.9

2.9Endgame41.3

86Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	22
teleop	54	201
endgame	40	65
foul	5	0
total	112	288

Result

Final score

112 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 90 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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