Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.45 – 176.82

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391 ±9.8

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 1.03Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 35.32Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 206.1Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.4 ±10.4

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 100.96Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 59.59Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 16.27Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7757, 5870, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7757, 5870, 4476

Auto

47.6 21%

Teleop

129.4 56%

Endgame

52.4 23%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7902, 5409, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7902, 5409, 2708

Auto

12.9 8%

Teleop

102.5 60%

Endgame

56.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242.5pts

Blue projected score176.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.6
Score range: 148–271
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 536 vs event baseline 161.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391Season APEX377.4

47.6Auto12.9

129.4Teleop102.5

52.4Endgame56

46Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	13
teleop	155	141
endgame	60	76
foul	10	0
total	306	230

Result

Final score

306 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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