Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.85 – 420.13

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 562

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.7 ±12.2

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 38.85Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 44.38Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX -1.38Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 876.2 ±8.7

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 226.9Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 53.2Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 140.03Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 11227, 7603

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 11227, 7603

Auto

18.4 26%

Teleop

51.9 73%

Endgame

0.5 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4946, 7712, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4946, 7712, 1241

Auto

80.7 19%

Teleop

254.7 62%

Endgame

78.6 19%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.48 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.9pts

Blue projected score420.1pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -338.3
Score range: 54–448
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 600 vs event baseline 157.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.7Season APEX876.2

18.4Auto80.7

51.9Teleop254.7

0.5Endgame78.6

15Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	108
teleop	6	355
endgame	11	99
foul	10	0
total	38	562

Result

Final score

38 – 562

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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