Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.85 – 80.11

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.9 ±9.8

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 44.36Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 89.52Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 26.97Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.6 ±10.4

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 7.33Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 87.07Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -14.29Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5032, 10015, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5032, 10015, 5689

Auto

20.7 13%

Teleop

98.3 62%

Endgame

38.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8089, 4976, 5596

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8089, 4976, 5596

Auto

24.8 36%

Teleop

31.3 45%

Endgame

13.4 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.9pts

Blue projected score80.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.7
Score range: 52–189
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 156.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.9Season APEX354.6

20.7Auto24.8

98.3Teleop31.3

38.9Endgame13.4

0Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	19
teleop	111	73
endgame	32	40
foul	10	10
total	195	142

Result

Final score

195 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 48 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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