Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.04 – 114.53

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582 ±9.8

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 7.93Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 147.87Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 90.24Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.2 ±10.4

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 17.67Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 39.26Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 57.6Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3543, 1241, 7902

/ 100 compat

Projected

246 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3543, 1241, 7902

Auto

36.3 16%

Teleop

147.5 64%

Endgame

47.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5689, 8089, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5689, 8089, 4152

Auto

36.4 35%

Teleop

47.4 46%

Endgame

19.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score246pts

Blue projected score114.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.5
Score range: 82–279
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582Season APEX337.2

36.3Auto36.4

147.5Teleop47.4

47.7Endgame19.3

4Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	193	20
endgame	25	29
foul	20	40
total	256	103

Result

Final score

256 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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