Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.09 – 96.22

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.1 ±10.4

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 16.3Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 8.17Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 28.62Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.3 ±10.4

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 8.56Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 58.08Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 29.58Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3543, 781, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3543, 781, 5024

Auto

22.3 47%

Teleop

11.3 24%

Endgame

13.8 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5036, 4152, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5036, 4152, 7480

Auto

48.6 60%

Teleop

17.1 21%

Endgame

15.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.1pts

Blue projected score96.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.1
Score range: 24–125
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 160.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.1Season APEX332.3

22.3Auto48.6

11.3Teleop17.1

13.8Endgame15.3

12Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	25
teleop	3	45
endgame	13	9
foul	15	0
total	51	79

Result

Final score

51 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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