Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

480.97 – 87

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

581 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 78.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 823.9 ±8.7

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 189.18Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 77.05Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 214.74Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.8 ±10.4

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 77.45Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 8.66Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 0.89Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 188, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

481 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 188, 4946

Auto

93.1 20%

Teleop

299.9 64%

Endgame

78.9 17%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4976, 3543, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4976, 3543, 7757

Auto

8.2 12%

Teleop

50.0 72%

Endgame

11.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score481pts

Blue projected score87pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 394
Score range: 60–508
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 725 vs event baseline 151.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

823.9Season APEX264.8

93.1Auto8.2

299.9Teleop50

78.9Endgame11.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	38
teleop	349	48
endgame	107	38
foul	0	20
total	581	144

Result

Final score

581 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 78.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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