Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.21 – 30.97

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.2 ±10.4

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -18.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 21.34Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 105.59Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.4 ±11

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX -4.07Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 33.26Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 1.78Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5596, 5870, 7902

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5596, 5870, 7902

Auto

11.6 10%

Teleop

77.9 70%

Endgame

21.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8089, 6135, 8729

/ 100 compat

Projected

31 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8089, 6135, 8729

Auto

26.0 100%

Teleop

-35.1 0%

Endgame

19.7 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.2pts

Blue projected score31pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.2
Score range: 3–136
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 154.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.2Season APEX257.4

11.6Auto26

77.9Teleop-35.1

21.6Endgame19.7

103Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	23
teleop	71	27
endgame	51	12
foul	0	5
total	140	67

Result

Final score

140 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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