Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.39 – 146.62

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.1 ±10.4

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 2.74Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 33.02Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -16.37Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.8 ±9.8

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 70.62Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 54.62Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 21.38Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2708, 5689, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2708, 5689, 5036

Auto

-1.9 0%

Teleop

12.9 65%

Endgame

8.9 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 188, 11227, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 188, 11227, 9569

Auto

17.5 13%

Teleop

90.1 68%

Endgame

25.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.4pts

Blue projected score146.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.2
Score range: -10–176
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 161.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.1Season APEX451.8

-1.9Auto17.5

12.9Teleop90.1

8.9Endgame25.6

76Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	21
teleop	24	103
endgame	17	4
foul	5	0
total	60	128

Result

Final score

60 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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