Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.34 – 280.91

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.8 ±10.4

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX -0.33Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 55.18Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 6.49Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 589.8 ±9.8

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 171.48Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 2.79Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 106.64Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3543, 5032, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3543, 5032, 7480

Auto

13.0 25%

Teleop

22.1 43%

Endgame

16.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1241, 7757, 5409

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 7757, 5409

Auto

23.7 9%

Teleop

194.2 72%

Endgame

50.8 19%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.3pts

Blue projected score280.9pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -219.6
Score range: 32–310
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 163.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.8Season APEX589.8

13Auto23.7

22.1Teleop194.2

16.9Endgame50.8

28Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	31	69
endgame	16	48
foul	15	15
total	76	154

Result

Final score

76 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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