Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.27 – 73.53

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

424 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 107.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 643 ±9.3

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 50.33Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 62.93Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 179.01Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.6 ±10.4

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 12.97Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 38.66Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 21.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4976, 7712, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4976, 7712, 4946

Auto

79.0 26%

Teleop

159.2 53%

Endgame

64.5 21%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5870, 9589, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 9589, 4152

Auto

40.9 84%

Teleop

14.6 30%

Endgame

-6.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score292.3pts

Blue projected score73.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 218.7
Score range: 46–320
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 581 vs event baseline 156.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

643Season APEX270.6

79Auto40.9

159.2Teleop14.6

64.5Endgame-6.6

89Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	43
teleop	252	66
endgame	86	43
foul	15	5
total	424	157

Result

Final score

424 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 107.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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