Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.79 – 293.98

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 108.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.9 ±9.8

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 0.84Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 145.21Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 20.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.4 ±9.8

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 15.82Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 76.22Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 201.94Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5036, 10015, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5036, 10015, 8089

Auto

23.0 15%

Teleop

91.3 61%

Endgame

36.6 24%

Strengths

· 10015 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5024, 5689, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

294 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5024, 5689, 4476

Auto

46.2 16%

Teleop

161.8 57%

Endgame

77.0 27%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.8pts

Blue projected score294pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.2
Score range: 138–323
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 158.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.9Season APEX453.4

23Auto46.2

91.3Teleop161.8

36.6Endgame77

86Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	38
teleop	18	139
endgame	10	9
foul	0	0
total	58	186

Result

Final score

58 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 108.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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