Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.17 – 61.87

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 3.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235 ±11.7

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 5.23Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 7.04Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 52.9Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.8 ±11

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 19.6Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 33.44Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 8.83Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7603, 7757, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7603, 7757, 5032

Auto

-3.8 0%

Teleop

49.6 64%

Endgame

31.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9569, 6135, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9569, 6135, 2708

Auto

6.5 13%

Teleop

26.0 52%

Endgame

17.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.2pts

Blue projected score61.9pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.3
Score range: 32–95
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 164.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235Season APEX245.8

-3.8Auto6.5

49.6Teleop26

31.1Endgame17.7

2Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	6
teleop	40	21
endgame	8	12
foul	10	20
total	70	59

Result

Final score

70 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 3.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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