Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.09 – 83.75

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 119.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564 ±9.8

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -14.5Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX -13.39Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 145.98Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538.6 ±9.8

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 67.72Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX -17.38Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 33.41Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 781, 7480, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 781, 7480, 1241

Auto

14.5 14%

Teleop

57.1 54%

Endgame

33.2 32%

Strengths

· 1241 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5409, 4152, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5409, 4152, 188

Auto

31.9 46%

Teleop

4.1 6%

Endgame

33.6 48%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.1pts

Blue projected score83.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.3
Score range: 55–147
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 160.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564Season APEX538.6

14.5Auto31.9

57.1Teleop4.1

33.2Endgame33.6

44Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	47
teleop	103	152
endgame	20	43
foul	5	15
total	184	257

Result

Final score

184 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 119.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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