Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 205.76

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 404

Prediction correct · off by 124.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.5 ±10.4

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -64.8Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 51.29Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX -2.46Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 563.5 ±9.8

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 135.04Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 14.6Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 56.12Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5596, 8729, 3543

/ 100 compat

Projected

-16 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5596, 8729, 3543

Auto

23.9 0%

Teleop

-26.4 100%

Endgame

-22.6 90%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4946, 11227, 7902

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4946, 11227, 7902

Auto

45.1 22%

Teleop

143.4 69%

Endgame

20.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-16pts

Blue projected score205.8pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -205.8
Score range: -28–234
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 155.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.5Season APEX563.5

23.9Auto45.1

-26.4Teleop143.4

-22.6Endgame20.7

54Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	79
teleop	12	251
endgame	13	74
foul	15	0
total	51	404

Result

Final score

51 – 404

Prediction correct · off by 124.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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