Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.61 – 144.54

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 107.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.2 ±9.3

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 30.52Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 144.07Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 2.02Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.2 ±10.5

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -43.69Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 22.72Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 165.51Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5024, 10015, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5024, 10015, 188

Auto

34.0 21%

Teleop

115.8 70%

Endgame

14.8 9%

Strengths

· 10015 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 781, 6135, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 781, 6135, 4476

Auto

29.8 23%

Teleop

88.1 67%

Endgame

14.4 11%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.6pts

Blue projected score144.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.1
Score range: 117–205
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 536 vs event baseline 153.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.2Season APEX411.2

34Auto29.8

115.8Teleop88.1

14.8Endgame14.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	51
teleop	113	131
endgame	84	74
foul	5	30
total	250	286

Result

Final score

250 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 107.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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