Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.16 – 46.17

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 107.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 59.88Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 175.84Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 70.44Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.6 ±10.4

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -26.16Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 59.88Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 12.45Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 4946, 8729

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 4946, 8729

Auto

52.3 18%

Teleop

169.6 58%

Endgame

69.5 24%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5596, 5689, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5596, 5689, 7480

Auto

15.2 50%

Teleop

3.2 11%

Endgame

11.9 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score306.2pts

Blue projected score46.2pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 260
Score range: 17–335
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 160.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549Season APEX230.6

52.3Auto15.2

169.6Teleop3.2

69.5Endgame11.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	11
teleop	9	6
endgame	11	3
foul	0	0
total	117	20

Result

Final score

117 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 107.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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