Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.48 – 62.68

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.8 ±10.4

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 8.58Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 15.1Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 46.8Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.9 ±11.7

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 24.87Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX -5.67Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 43.48Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5036, 5870, 5409

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5036, 5870, 5409

Auto

10.6 14%

Teleop

21.4 28%

Endgame

45.3 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7603, 3543, 9589

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7603, 3543, 9589

Auto

16.5 29%

Teleop

48.7 85%

Endgame

-8.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.5pts

Blue projected score62.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.8
Score range: 33–100
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.8Season APEX207.9

10.6Auto16.5

21.4Teleop48.7

45.3Endgame-8.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	15
teleop	64	12
endgame	32	3
foul	0	10
total	117	40

Result

Final score

117 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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