Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.47 – 143.91

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

468 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 168.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 760.3 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 63.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 104.17Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX -31.68Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.2 ±10.4

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -21.8Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 104.17Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 61.54Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 1241, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 1241, 11227

Auto

10.0 8%

Teleop

104.7 81%

Endgame

15.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 781, 7902, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 781, 7902, 5032

Auto

16.9 11%

Teleop

97.1 66%

Endgame

33.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.5pts

Blue projected score143.9pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.4
Score range: 108–172
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 618 vs event baseline 153.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

760.3Season APEX335.2

10Auto16.9

104.7Teleop97.1

15.3Endgame33.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	15
teleop	297	95
endgame	68	40
foul	35	0
total	468	150

Result

Final score

468 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 168.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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