Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.61 – 133.14

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.8 ±11

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 63.66Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 38.62Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 11.33Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±11.7

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 34.15Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 10.46Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 88.53Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5409, 5024, 6135

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5409, 5024, 6135

Auto

25.6 24%

Teleop

52.0 49%

Endgame

28.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5870, 7603, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 7603, 4976

Auto

31.1 23%

Teleop

73.8 55%

Endgame

28.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.6pts

Blue projected score133.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.5
Score range: 81–166
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 185.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.8Season APEX260.9

25.6Auto31.1

52Teleop73.8

28.9Endgame28.9

30Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	18
teleop	70	31
endgame	36	22
foul	0	0
total	130	71

Result

Final score

130 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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