Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

307.24 – 418.48

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

275 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 76.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 203.23Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 4.67Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 99.34Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 777.1 ±9.3

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 9.12Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 151.79Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 257.57Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 7480, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 7480, 188

Auto

41.9 14%

Teleop

180.4 61%

Endgame

74.3 25%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 781, 1241, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 781, 1241, 4946

Auto

95.6 23%

Teleop

238.7 58%

Endgame

74.1 18%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score307.2pts

Blue projected score418.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.2
Score range: 274–451
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 572 vs event baseline 184.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.8Season APEX777.1

41.9Auto95.6

180.4Teleop238.7

74.3Endgame74.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	90
teleop	196	163
endgame	50	24
foul	5	20
total	275	297

Result

Final score

275 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 76.9 pts

Match videos

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