Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

311.84 – 431.48

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

269 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.8 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 204.69Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 6.14Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 101.01Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 777.1 ±9.3

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 156.14Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 262.12Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 13.22Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 7480, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 7480, 188

Auto

45.3 15%

Teleop

186.0 61%

Endgame

71.2 24%

Strengths

· 4476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1241, 4946, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 4946, 781

Auto

95.5 23%

Teleop

246.5 59%

Endgame

79.3 19%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score311.8pts

Blue projected score431.5pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.6
Score range: 279–464
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 182.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.8Season APEX777.1

45.3Auto95.5

186Teleop246.5

71.2Endgame79.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	95
teleop	137	172
endgame	94	33
foul	20	10
total	269	310

Result

Final score

269 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 pts

Match videos

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