Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.67 – 96.46

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 131.09Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 29.67Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 104.91Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±9.8

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 34.45Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 17.44Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 44.57Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 9589, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 9589, 8884

Auto

58.9 23%

Teleop

155.9 60%

Endgame

44.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7712, 2706, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7712, 2706, 2708

Auto

22.7 26%

Teleop

42.5 49%

Endgame

22.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score265.7pts

Blue projected score96.5pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.2
Score range: 60–302
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 201.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.9Season APEX365.2

58.9Auto22.7

155.9Teleop42.5

44.3Endgame22

50Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	22
teleop	82	40
endgame	30	39
foul	10	0
total	186	101

Result

Final score

186 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts

Match videos

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