Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

318.72 – 265.99

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

444 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 66.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.3 ±9.9

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 149.95Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 10.7Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 158.07Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 132.16Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 28.77Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 105.06Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10015, 6864, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10015, 6864, 610

Auto

52.1 16%

Teleop

185.7 59%

Endgame

78.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4152, 9589, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

266 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 9589, 8884

Auto

54.1 21%

Teleop

159.2 61%

Endgame

45.7 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score318.7pts

Blue projected score266pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.7
Score range: 231–354
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 717 vs event baseline 197.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.3Season APEX462.9

52.1Auto54.1

185.7Teleop159.2

78.5Endgame45.7

67Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	87
teleop	235	137
endgame	145	44
foul	15	5
total	444	273

Result

Final score

444 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 66.1 pts

Match videos

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