Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.18 – 238.25

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 373

Prediction correct · off by 89.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.5 ±10.4

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 7.66Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 38.48Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 42.04Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.8 ±9.8

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 10.68Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 167.43Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 60.14Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1334, 8729, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1334, 8729, 5036

Auto

20.2 23%

Teleop

37.2 42%

Endgame

30.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3543, 7520, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3543, 7520, 1305

Auto

34.8 15%

Teleop

139.6 60%

Endgame

59.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.2pts

Blue projected score238.3pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.1
Score range: 52–274
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 198.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.5Season APEX479.8

20.2Auto34.8

37.2Teleop139.6

30.7Endgame59.6

16Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	77
teleop	6	242
endgame	15	54
foul	0	0
total	44	373

Result

Final score

44 – 373

Prediction correct · off by 89.5 pts

Match videos

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