Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.01 – 90.79

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.5 ±10.4

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 121.84Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 81.45Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 2.72Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±9.8

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 31.81Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 16.25Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 42.73Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2935, 2609, 5596

/ 100 compat

Projected

206 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2935, 2609, 5596

Auto

27.4 14%

Teleop

115.3 57%

Endgame

59.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7712, 2706, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7712, 2706, 2708

Auto

25.8 29%

Teleop

38.8 43%

Endgame

25.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206pts

Blue projected score90.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.2
Score range: 55–242
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 198.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.5Season APEX365.2

27.4Auto25.8

115.3Teleop38.8

59.3Endgame25.5

18Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	23
teleop	121	58
endgame	93	26
foul	5	25
total	273	132

Result

Final score

273 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Match videos

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