Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.86 – 105.62

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 705.8 ±8.7

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 128.07Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 19.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 159.44Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±10.4

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 52.38Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 38.05Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 15.19Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9785, 2013, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9785, 2013, 11270

Auto

45.1 15%

Teleop

173.8 58%

Endgame

82.2 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7480, 7476, 9580

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7480, 7476, 9580

Auto

29.4 30%

Teleop

53.5 54%

Endgame

16.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score306.9pts

Blue projected score105.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 201.2
Score range: 70–343
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 198.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

705.8Season APEX270.8

45.1Auto29.4

173.8Teleop53.5

82.2Endgame16.6

51Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	23
teleop	180	47
endgame	63	15
foul	0	0
total	305	85

Result

Final score

305 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts

Match videos

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