Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

232.04 – 260.51

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

275 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.8 ±9.8

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 8.56Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 165.62Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 57.86Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 128.81Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 27.12Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 104.58Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3543, 7520, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

232 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3543, 7520, 1305

Auto

41.0 18%

Teleop

126.3 56%

Endgame

59.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4152, 9589, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 9589, 8884

Auto

62.0 24%

Teleop

159.5 61%

Endgame

38.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score232pts

Blue projected score260.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.5
Score range: 197–296
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 584 vs event baseline 196.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.8Season APEX462.9

41Auto62

126.3Teleop159.5

59.9Endgame38.7

60Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	24
teleop	200	168
endgame	62	77
foul	5	40
total	275	309

Result

Final score

275 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 pts

Match videos

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