Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.49 – 87.3

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

357 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.3 ±9.9

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 147.6Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 9.59Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 156.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.5 ±10.4

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 7.43Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 37.99Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 41.88Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10015, 6864, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10015, 6864, 610

Auto

52.0 17%

Teleop

178.3 58%

Endgame

78.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1334, 8729, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1334, 8729, 5036

Auto

21.5 24%

Teleop

38.1 43%

Endgame

30.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score313.5pts

Blue projected score87.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.2
Score range: 52–348
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 196.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.3Season APEX229.5

52Auto21.5

178.3Teleop38.1

78.9Endgame30

78Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	16
teleop	225	48
endgame	78	35
foul	0	10
total	357	109

Result

Final score

357 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Match videos

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