Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.79 – 270.11

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 60.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 705.8 ±8.7

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 123.76Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 17Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 156.03Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.8 ±9.8

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 22.17Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 178.58Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 69.36Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9785, 2013, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9785, 2013, 11270

Auto

47.6 16%

Teleop

165.8 57%

Endgame

79.4 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3543, 7520, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3543, 7520, 1305

Auto

45.0 17%

Teleop

157.1 60%

Endgame

61.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score296.8pts

Blue projected score270.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.7
Score range: 233–334
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 584 vs event baseline 203.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

705.8Season APEX479.8

47.6Auto45

165.8Teleop157.1

79.4Endgame61.4

43Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	40
teleop	166	124
endgame	148	14
foul	15	40
total	366	218

Result

Final score

366 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 60.7 pts

Match videos

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