Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

258.91 – 254.76

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 117.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.8 ±9.8

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 18.5Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 174.22Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 66.19Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 126.99Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 26.95Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 100.82Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3543, 7520, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3543, 7520, 1305

Auto

41.9 17%

Teleop

153.1 61%

Endgame

57.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4152, 9589, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 9589, 8884

Auto

59.0 24%

Teleop

146.7 59%

Endgame

42.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score258.9pts

Blue projected score254.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.2
Score range: 218–296
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 203.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.8Season APEX462.9

41.9Auto59

153.1Teleop146.7

57Endgame42.1

40Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	50
teleop	182	51
endgame	92	0
foul	5	5
total	346	106

Result

Final score

346 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 117.9 pts

Match videos

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