Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.6 – 86.32

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 47.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.3 ±11

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 13.51Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 5.57Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 121.52Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.8 ±10.4

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 30.37Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 26.79Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 29.16Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6864, 3543, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6864, 3543, 7480

Auto

27.0 20%

Teleop

72.3 54%

Endgame

33.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5036, 9589, 9580

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5036, 9589, 9580

Auto

16.8 18%

Teleop

74.5 81%

Endgame

0.6 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.6pts

Blue projected score86.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.3
Score range: 51–176
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 195.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.3Season APEX182.8

27Auto16.8

72.3Teleop74.5

33.7Endgame0.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	18	52
endgame	18	23
foul	0	0
total	52	92

Result

Final score

52 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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