Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.19 – 110.66

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

373 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 144.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.4 ±9.3

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 57.78Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 58.25Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 81.16Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 593.1 ±9.3

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 43.48Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 56.78Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 10.4Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2708, 11270, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2708, 11270, 9785

Auto

26.3 14%

Teleop

125.1 65%

Endgame

42.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1305, 8884, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1305, 8884, 7712

Auto

18.8 17%

Teleop

72.9 65%

Endgame

20.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.2pts

Blue projected score110.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.5
Score range: 78–230
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 597 vs event baseline 180.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665.4Season APEX593.1

26.3Auto18.8

125.1Teleop72.9

42.1Endgame20.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	49
teleop	197	121
endgame	139	39
foul	5	15
total	373	224

Result

Final score

373 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 144.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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