Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.2 – 56.97

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.6 ±9.8

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 67.78Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 34.21Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 177.21Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.6 ±10.4

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 32.32Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 13.55Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 11.1Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1305, 7476, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1305, 7476, 7520

Auto

50.2 19%

Teleop

161.8 60%

Endgame

58.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8729, 9580, 5596

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8729, 9580, 5596

Auto

21.1 37%

Teleop

21.2 37%

Endgame

14.7 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score279.2pts

Blue projected score57pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 222.2
Score range: 20–316
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 207.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.6Season APEX201.6

50.2Auto21.1

161.8Teleop21.2

58.5Endgame14.7

63Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	13
teleop	141	8
endgame	53	11
foul	0	0
total	208	32

Result

Final score

208 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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