Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.84 – 304.35

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 108.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.2 ±9.8

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 25.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 46.88Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 48.22Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 643.7 ±9.3

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 116.6Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 32.85Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 154.9Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2013, 8729, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2013, 8729, 5036

Auto

27.5 23%

Teleop

49.8 42%

Endgame

40.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9785, 2708, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9785, 2708, 7520

Auto

42.9 14%

Teleop

178.1 59%

Endgame

80.8 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.8pts

Blue projected score304.4pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -183.5
Score range: 86–339
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 194.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.2Season APEX643.7

27.5Auto42.9

49.8Teleop178.1

40.9Endgame80.8

45Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	66
teleop	12	269
endgame	21	116
foul	0	0
total	50	451

Result

Final score

50 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 108.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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