Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.46 – 106.66

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.9 ±11

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 129.79Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 8.34Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 54.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.5 ±11.7

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 4.07Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 13.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 89.26Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 6864, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 6864, 7480

Auto

41.9 22%

Teleop

109.2 57%

Endgame

39.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6859, 1334, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6859, 1334, 2609

Auto

13.0 12%

Teleop

64.5 61%

Endgame

28.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.5pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.8
Score range: 72–227
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 194.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.9Season APEX200.5

41.9Auto13

109.2Teleop64.5

39.5Endgame28

8Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	9
teleop	108	18
endgame	43	2
foul	0	0
total	210	29

Result

Final score

210 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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