Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.92 – 242.79

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.3 ±9.8

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 35.32Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 12.81Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 109.79Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.9 ±9.8

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 152Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 49.48Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 41.31Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2708, 2706, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2708, 2706, 8884

Auto

39.5 25%

Teleop

93.3 58%

Endgame

27.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10015, 5036, 7476

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10015, 5036, 7476

Auto

40.4 17%

Teleop

138.7 60%

Endgame

53.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.9pts

Blue projected score242.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.9
Score range: 123–278
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 194.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.3Season APEX379.9

39.5Auto40.4

93.3Teleop138.7

27Endgame53.7

37Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	60
teleop	74	113
endgame	30	54
foul	5	5
total	144	232

Result

Final score

144 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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