Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.39 – 194.14

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.3 ±12.2

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 2.27Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 5.73Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 115.39Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.5 ±9.8

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 154.24Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 47.92Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -8.02Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6859, 6864, 2935

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6859, 6864, 2935

Auto

21.4 18%

Teleop

57.6 48%

Endgame

41.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11270, 1305, 5596

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11270, 1305, 5596

Auto

23.5 13%

Teleop

101.6 54%

Endgame

62.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.4pts

Blue projected score194.1pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.7
Score range: 88–229
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 194.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.3Season APEX499.5

21.4Auto23.5

57.6Teleop101.6

41.6Endgame62.1

14Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	74
teleop	94	157
endgame	42	25
foul	5	0
total	151	256

Result

Final score

151 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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