Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.92 – 216.03

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.7 ±9.8

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 12.76Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 55.4Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 149.76Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.3 ±10.4

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 35.18Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 133.75Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 47.1Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1334, 7480, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1334, 7480, 610

Auto

39.6 19%

Teleop

130.7 61%

Endgame

43.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9589, 4152, 7476

/ 100 compat

Projected

216 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9589, 4152, 7476

Auto

43.9 21%

Teleop

139.2 66%

Endgame

27.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.9pts

Blue projected score216pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.9
Score range: 181–253
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 194.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.7Season APEX322.3

39.6Auto43.9

130.7Teleop139.2

43.1Endgame27.8

33Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	54
teleop	94	91
endgame	85	27
foul	0	5
total	222	177

Result

Final score

222 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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