Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.92 – 84.96

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.5 ±9.8

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 114Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 3.7Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 91.22Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.2 ±9.8

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 7.41Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 49.2Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 28.35Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8884, 9580, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8884, 9580, 2609

Auto

38.6 18%

Teleop

133.2 64%

Endgame

37.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3543, 5036, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3543, 5036, 7712

Auto

22.5 27%

Teleop

41.2 49%

Endgame

20.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208.9pts

Blue projected score85pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124
Score range: 50–244
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 195.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.5Season APEX331.2

38.6Auto22.5

133.2Teleop41.2

37.4Endgame20.4

56Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	23
teleop	134	56
endgame	35	29
foul	0	5
total	194	113

Result

Final score

194 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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