Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.88 – 176.18

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.9 ±9.3

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 21.3Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 160.75Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 38.83Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.3 ±9.8

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 35.26Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 18.89Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 122.03Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2013, 11270, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2013, 11270, 5036

Auto

40.6 19%

Teleop

112.4 52%

Endgame

64.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7712, 2706, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7712, 2706, 4152

Auto

42.3 25%

Teleop

93.2 55%

Endgame

33.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score220.9pts

Blue projected score176.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.7
Score range: 139–258
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 207.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.9Season APEX444.3

40.6Auto42.3

112.4Teleop93.2

64Endgame33.1

42Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	24
teleop	136	61
endgame	61	16
foul	0	0
total	233	101

Result

Final score

233 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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