Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.14 – 132.37

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.4 ±9.8

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 40.12Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 53.95Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 106.07Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.3 ±10.5

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 98.15Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 23.84Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 10.38Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7476, 7480, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7476, 7480, 9785

Auto

37.4 20%

Teleop

112.6 59%

Endgame

40.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2609, 2013, 6864

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2609, 2013, 6864

Auto

18.0 14%

Teleop

67.4 52%

Endgame

44.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.1pts

Blue projected score132.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.8
Score range: 98–234
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 189.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.4Season APEX255.3

37.4Auto18

112.6Teleop67.4

40.8Endgame44.1

20Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	32
teleop	182	63
endgame	60	27
foul	10	0
total	298	122

Result

Final score

298 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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