Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.13 – 176.94

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.6 ±10.4

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -3.37Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 1.1Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 18.4Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.1 ±9.3

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 1.55Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 148.27Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 27.12Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5596, 2706, 1334

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5596, 2706, 1334

Auto

16.0 100%

Teleop

-5.0 0%

Endgame

1.8 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9580, 610, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9580, 610, 7712

Auto

35.9 21%

Teleop

102.5 59%

Endgame

35.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score16.1pts

Blue projected score176.9pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.8
Score range: -18–211
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 190.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.6Season APEX450.1

16Auto35.9

-5Teleop102.5

1.8Endgame35.9

42Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	42
teleop	7	140
endgame	7	67
foul	0	0
total	32	249

Result

Final score

32 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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