Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.42 – 306.21

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.3 ±9.8

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 139.51Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 48.15Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 127.76Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.7 ±9.3

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 122.55Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 155.18Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 28.48Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11270, 2708, 4152

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11270, 2708, 4152

Auto

51.9 16%

Teleop

182.2 57%

Endgame

83.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8884, 7520, 9589

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8884, 7520, 9589

Auto

58.3 19%

Teleop

195.5 64%

Endgame

53.2 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score315.4pts

Blue projected score306.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.2
Score range: 272–349
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 187.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.3Season APEX550.7

51.9Auto58.3

182.2Teleop195.5

83.3Endgame53.2

16Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	46
teleop	203	171
endgame	51	58
foul	5	0
total	304	275

Result

Final score

304 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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