Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.76 – 203.38

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 89.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.8 ±9.3

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 145.61Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 25.82Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 19.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.9 ±11.2

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 125.02Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 69.4Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 8.96Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10015, 7712, 1334

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10015, 7712, 1334

Auto

31.2 17%

Teleop

110.0 61%

Endgame

39.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9785, 5036, 6859

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9785, 5036, 6859

Auto

30.1 15%

Teleop

113.1 56%

Endgame

59.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190.8pts

Blue projected score203.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.6
Score range: 156–238
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 191.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.8Season APEX413.9

31.2Auto30.1

110Teleop113.1

39.2Endgame59.1

98Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	20
teleop	104	12
endgame	34	7
foul	0	0
total	176	39

Result

Final score

176 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 89.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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