Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

328.46 – 64.69

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

237 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.5 ±9.8

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 147.76Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 113.21Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 67.49Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281 ±10.4

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 52.34Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX -3.29Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 15.64Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11270, 2609, 8729

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11270, 2609, 8729

Auto

43.3 13%

Teleop

192.4 58%

Endgame

94.4 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7480, 2706, 9589

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7480, 2706, 9589

Auto

17.4 27%

Teleop

45.2 69%

Endgame

2.9 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score328.5pts

Blue projected score64.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 263.8
Score range: 31–362
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 188.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.5Season APEX281

43.3Auto17.4

192.4Teleop45.2

94.4Endgame2.9

36Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	31
teleop	116	44
endgame	92	29
foul	0	5
total	237	109

Result

Final score

237 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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