Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.82 – 138.93

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.8 ±9.8

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 130.38Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 19.67Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 32.77Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.8 ±9.8

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -4.32Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 128.22Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 15.03Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 1334, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 1334, 2013

Auto

45.0 25%

Teleop

94.7 52%

Endgame

43.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5596, 9785, 3543

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5596, 9785, 3543

Auto

17.2 13%

Teleop

68.4 52%

Endgame

45.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.8pts

Blue projected score138.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 105–217
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 191.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.8Season APEX485.8

45Auto17.2

94.7Teleop68.4

43Endgame45

23Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	30
teleop	104	36
endgame	18	13
foul	0	0
total	158	79

Result

Final score

158 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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