Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.74 – 147.42

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.2 ±10.7

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 8Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 130.13Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 143.61Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.2 ±10.4

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 2.24Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 47.22Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 97.96Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6859, 610, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6859, 610, 10015

Auto

34.6 13%

Teleop

153.9 57%

Endgame

83.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9580, 2708, 2935

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9580, 2708, 2935

Auto

25.5 18%

Teleop

70.4 48%

Endgame

49.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score281.7pts

Blue projected score147.4pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 134.3
Score range: 113–316
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 190.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.2Season APEX321.2

34.6Auto25.5

153.9Teleop70.4

83.7Endgame49.3

120Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	19
teleop	208	63
endgame	41	49
foul	5	0
total	306	131

Result

Final score

306 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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