Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.39 – 92.71

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.1 ±9.8

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 115.36Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 27.16Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 44.87Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.6 ±11

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 67.9Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 26.74Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -1.93Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2609, 7712, 7476

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2609, 7712, 7476

Auto

26.1 15%

Teleop

123.2 69%

Endgame

28.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5036, 1305, 6864

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5036, 1305, 6864

Auto

14.4 16%

Teleop

41.2 45%

Endgame

36.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.4pts

Blue projected score92.7pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.7
Score range: 58–222
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 191.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.1Season APEX272.6

26.1Auto14.4

123.2Teleop41.2

28.1Endgame36.1

91Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	22
teleop	100	35
endgame	35	58
foul	0	0
total	170	115

Result

Final score

170 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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