Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

347.23 – 205.27

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 64 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.2 ±9.3

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 145.54Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 158.69Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 43Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 586.5 ±9.3

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 57.94Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 23.57Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 123.76Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 610, 10015, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 610, 10015, 1305

Auto

49.8 14%

Teleop

201.7 58%

Endgame

93.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8729, 7712, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8729, 7712, 9785

Auto

29.2 15%

Teleop

99.1 50%

Endgame

71.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score347.2pts

Blue projected score205.3pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142
Score range: 170–382
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 194.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.2Season APEX586.5

49.8Auto29.2

201.7Teleop99.1

93.7Endgame71.3

80Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	48
teleop	115	136
endgame	85	39
foul	20	5
total	242	228

Result

Final score

242 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 64 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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